During the night session, SHFE tin prices opened slightly lower and remained in the doldrums. Trading in the spot market was sluggish. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Briefing on October 30, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2511) opened slightly lower in the night session and remained in the doldrums, closing at 285,420 yuan/mt, down 0.29% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to the Passenger Car Association, from October 1-26, national retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 901,000 units, up 0% YoY compared to the same period last October, and down 8% MoM; cumulative retail sales for the year stood at 9.771 million units, up 22% YoY. From October 1-26, wholesale sales by national passenger vehicle producers of new energy vehicles amounted to 1.034 million units, up 4% YoY compared to the same period last October, and down 5% MoM; cumulative wholesale sales for the year were 11.48 million units, up 29% YoY. (2) Guobo Electronics announced that it has jointly developed a silicon-based gallium nitride power amplifier chip with leading domestic terminal manufacturers, designed and optimized for applications such as mobile phones, filling a gap in the industry for silicon-based gallium nitride power amplifiers in terminal RF applications. This marks the first time in the industry that silicon-based gallium nitride power amplifier chips have been mass-produced and delivered for terminal RF applications. The product has been certified by leading domestic terminal manufacturers, with over 1 million units delivered. (3) US Fed's October interest rate decision: As expected, a 25BP interest rate cut was implemented, Milan supported a 50BP cut, while Schmid favored no change; the balance sheet reduction will end on December 1. Powell stated that a December rate cut is not a certainty, with significant divergence among officials regarding the December policy. Data gaps due to government shutdowns made more people cautious, tending towards no action. Powell also mentioned that this was a risk management-style rate cut, and the current AI boom differs from the previous internet bubble.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in main production areas like Yunnan tightened, with some smelters' maintenance shutdowns largely concluded in October, and most smelters in Yunnan operated steadily. (2) Demand: Due to weak demand in consumer electronics and home appliances, orders significantly decreased. Downstream purchases were cautious, with high prices clearly suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and PV installations drove some tin consumption, their contribution remains small, unable to offset the decline in traditional sector consumption.

Spot Market: Spot market transactions cooled, with tin prices fluctuating at highs yesterday. Most downstream and end-user enterprises adopted a wait-and-see attitude, showing low purchasing willingness. Most traders only managed to transact around ten tons, indicating a low overall trading volume.

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